Home Buying: Home Purchase Affordability

In this new 4-part series, we discuss buying homes in 2024 and the relationship between interest rates and home purchases. As we open the series, we tackle the daunting trifecta of taxes, home prices, and interest rates reshaping today's real estate market.

Our conversation delves deep into the cascading effects of mass migrations and state tax codes, offering you a fresh lens to view the ever-changing landscape of real estate. We peel back the layers of property taxes – a silent yet significant factor in the cost of homeownership – and discuss the strategic moves you can make to combat rising taxes and interest rates. Amidst these revelations, we don't just leave you with the challenges; we arm you with the financial literacy tools necessary to make empowered decisions, sidestepping the scarcity mindset that can cloud judgment.

Finally, prepare to time travel as we chart the history of mortgage interest rates from the eye-watering highs of the '70s to the lows of recent years. We explore how these fluctuations have shaped buyer behavior and the broader implications for the cost of homeownership, including maintenance and lifestyle adjustments. By the end of our exchange, you'll have a treasure trove of insights that we promise will elevate your understanding of the housing market and perhaps even your approach to securing your own slice of the American dream.

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Looking for additional content that can help you get the most from your life? Check out Unleashing Leadership with Travis Maus, premium bonus content from Ditch the Suits Fans, at https://unleashingleadership.buzzsprout.com/

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Ditch the Suits is produced by NQR Media. NQR also produces the One Big Thing Podcast with Steve Campbell.

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Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:08

Welcome to Ditch the Suits podcast, where we share insights nobody in the financial services industry wants you to know about. We're here to help you get the most from your money and life, so buckle up and welcome to Ditch the Suits. Steve Campbell, here with Travis Moss, we are going to be starting a brand new series today. If you're wondering what is a series, you're new to Ditch the Suits, travis and I like to take key components of financial planning and break them down into usually a two, three, sometimes four episode series, giving you an idea and then breaking it down with context and leading up to how should you apply this to your life on the road to financial freedom? And I think one huge component right now in financial planning has to deal with home, home purchasing, home assets.

Speaker 1: 0:47

And there's a lot of people right now trying to think about what do I do with interest rates that seem to be trending upward? Maybe they missed a couple of years ago the window coming out of COVID where they could have moved or relocated, but the price of a home in another community spooked them a little bit or they weren't sure if they could afford it. It could be that they don't understand the components that make up an actual mortgage and so we want to talk through really the role that interest rates play in buying a home. In case you're somebody who's trying to buy, trying to sell wherever you are in the spectrum, that you have some context in terms of how this could make sense for you. So we want to acknowledge kind of the problem right now but in light of interest rates, travis, what is maybe a good starting point for this.

Speaker 2: 1:27

Well, the real problem is not necessarily interest rates. It's home purchase, affordability and there's a lot of issues with this, that kind of think of it, as there's a whole bunch of ingredients to this. This is a really nice salad of issues and people are walking around there saying it's interest rates or it's the price of the homes, but there's a lot that goes into this and what we wanted to do is really describe the problem really well and maybe reset our focus a little bit so that we're a little bit more aware of the other dynamics that are in play here beyond just interest rates. And we're going to definitely talk about interest rates. So we have some cause and effect that we're going to go through after we describe the problem more so, the broader context of the issues, and then we were going to bring it home with really what you can do about it. So, if you're, we have clients that are trying to buy houses, we know clients who have children that are trying to buy houses. We know clients who have grandchildren that are trying to buy houses, if you're in this kind of conundrum where you're sitting there looking at interest rates, going on TV, they keep saying interest rates are going to go down, maybe housing prices will come down. This might be a little bit challenging for you. Times have been changing now for a while and they seem like they're poised to continue to change, and we're going to talk about the reason being and to set that up.

Speaker 2: 2:53

I would say that you know, I want people to think about that. There's three, really there's three primary components of home affordability. These are the three big ones anyway. There's taxes, property taxes, there's the price of the home, so that's the sticker price, and then there's interest rates, so that's what you pay for the sticker price if you don't have that much cash, and so we're primarily talking about people right now who are in the realm of having a mortgage. So if you have so much money that you're not going to need a mortgage, housing prices aren't so much an issue for you. In fact, you're probably part of the reason why housing prices are where they are, because you're capability to go out and buy cash and you're negotiating power, and we're going to get into that in our next episode. But you have these three primary components and these are going to impact the majority of actual people who own a home, so these are going to impact the people who have a mortgage.

Speaker 1: 3:54

But I also want to help people have contacts. Just so that you guys know is Travis and I actually went through this in the last few years. We relocated from upstate New York down to Tennessee and we kind of had to go, you know, through this position of trying to acquire a home, because we're kind of speaking from you know, not only helping clients purchase and sell homes, but our own experiences and if you've ever been, maybe you're one of those people that is thinking about moving across town or even across state lines and you find a dream home on Zillow. You go visit it and you find out from your agent someone in Cape you know paid cash and you're like what the heck? Where are all these people with cash and how come these prices are so high? What I think this series is going to do is help, like you said, add context to what is driving these prices and home affordability and really the components that are beyond your control, but then also, through each one of these conversations, what you can do to make sure that you're putting yourself in the best position. So keep going, hey guys.

Speaker 1: 4:47

Steve Campbell, with Ditch the Suits, I want to take one quick moment to make a big ask If you haven't already, travis and I would love for you to subscribe to this podcast, but if you haven't, also we would love for you to leave a five star rating and review. Your rating and review will let other podcasters note the show is worth their time. So let's get right back to the episode and thanks for listening to Ditch the Suits podcast.

Speaker 2: 5:08

Yeah, and we've talked a lot about COVID disrupted everything. You know, when you had massive amounts of people moving around the country and changing where they live, going from the city to you know more rural areas and going from certain you know higher tax states to lower tax states, and just there's these massive migrations of people. You had the perfect storm about three years ago where interest rates were record low, lower than really any time in our history. So you had these record low interest rates. You had an onslaught all of a sudden like a burst of migration to areas that had been really very slow real estate markets for quite a while. And you had people coming from places where, for instance, we came from New York, where people in New York look at Tennessee and they say I can't believe the cost of the housing like where Steve, you and I live, and it's like, yeah, well, you know you can do a lot if you're not paying an extra 12,000 in property taxes.

Speaker 1: 6:07

I think that's the truth.

Speaker 2: 6:08

And that's kind of where I'm going with this too is we talk about housing prices as if the price of the house, so what you see when you look online, and if the interest rates are the only two components of this. But you have to pay taxes. But I don't know anybody who's walking around going can't afford a house because of the taxes. I know a lot of people walking around going I can't afford a house because of the price, or I can't afford a house because of the interest rates. But taxes are an equally important consideration because taxes don't really go down. I don't know of any place community-wise where the taxes actually go down. There are some places that give you discounts based on age or military status and stuff like that, but I don't know of any locale where the property taxes are actually going. They're like ah, you know what the community has grown. We're making so much money, now let's just cut the property taxes. We're like, no, let's pay some more roads, let's build some more schools and let's put some more football fields in, so taxes only ever seem to go up on your property. So we know that that's a study versus price.

Speaker 2: 7:17

Price is fairly elastic. It goes up and down, up and down, up and down, and interest rates go up and down, up and down, up and down. So those are the two kind of variables, so those are the easy ones to get mad at, because if you're just going to sit here and complain about the taxes, you're going to be complaining forever because they're going to be a part of your life forever. And then in a while prices are like well, that's not fair. Why are the prices going up? I want to buy something that's too expensive now. Or, oh my gosh, those evil banks. Look at the interest of the charge. I can't believe the charge is so much interest because the interest rates. It's a lot easier to complain about those because they are so variable and in a lot of ways very volatile. They are up and down quite a bit.

Speaker 1: 7:53

Well, and I think too, we'll get into this and kind of our cause and effect, so not to kind of steal part of the precursor. But every state has a different taxation code, and so there's this unique opportunity too, where you have transient people for the first time. That for you and I living in Tennessee, people are shocked when I see them at the ball field and I tell them, yeah, how much $200,000 house in New York and I paid $7,000 in property taxes down here in Tennessee you could have a $400,000 house and pay $1,500 in property taxes. And you've got people locally that can't understand where all these quote-unquote big pockets are coming from. But if you've been in a state your entire life where you're used to paying an absurd amount of taxes and now you come to a new state where you've reduced that completely, the affordability goes through the roof. And so I think there's a lot of people wondering if they want to buy a home.

Speaker 1: 8:42

When are the values of homes going to come down? When are interest rates going to come back down? Basically, when is the perfect time for me to buy a home? And I think it's kind of like an investment. I think what we're trying to do in this entire process is know what you're looking for, know the components, because there's never going to be a perfect time for you as an individual where you're going to know exactly when to buy a home. But, on the flip side, if you don't have the right information, you can end up reaching for things that you should never purchase because you have a scarcity mindset and put yourself in a detrimental position for years, buying something you can't afford because you're afraid somebody else is going to come in and swoop it out from under you. So I think, as we kind of break down maybe just financial literacy, the different kind of components of what makes up a mortgage, what makes up price affordability I think that you have a lot of experience with this, talking through with clients, the big three as well, as kind of the teeter totter that goes back and forth. So why don't you kind of walk us through what's important to understand for home affordability? Let's take a quick break to hear a word from your sponsor.

Speaker 1: 9:44

This episode is brought to you by SEED Planning Group. If you're looking for a life-giving experience working with a financial planner, then SEED is here for you. Seed is a fee-only financial planning firm with a fiduciary obligation to put your best interests first. If your goal is financial freedom and independence, without sales products or really glorified salespeople, then check out SEED Planning Group. Today you can visit wwwseedpgcom. That's wwwseedpgcom, in the best part. You can schedule a free consultation to find out if their fee-only planners and their process are right for you.

Speaker 2: 10:20

But we look really silly if people three years ago were saying I'm not going to buy a house because the prices are too high, I'm going to wait for them to come down. The house that you thought looked ridiculously expensive at $300,000 is probably now selling for $450,000, $500,000 in a lot of markets. So it's not coming back down to what it was Not going to even come down close to what it was. So we tend to make these decisions in a bubble, without good context around how to kind of decipher things and work our way through them. And you mentioned teeter tower, so just focus. Let's take taxes out of it, and taxes are a very important part. When I'm talking to somebody about finding a house or relocating, you really have to take into consideration the taxes, because if you end up only $200 a month in property taxes versus $800 a month in property taxes for some people, that can make or break your budget and you can buy a $200,000 house in an area where you pay $200 a month or a very similar $200,000 house in another area where you pay $800 a month. So you got to be really careful with the property taxes. That's step one. But assuming that you're paying attention to property taxes and because you can't control that and it's always kind of going up the things that we're walking around again complaining about principle, the price and interest rates, the cost of the debt. That's a teeter totter and you have principal payments on one side and you have interest payments on the other side and that's actually your mortgage payment. So your mortgage payment is a teeter totter and if it's equal interest and equal principal, it's the teeter totter's flat. If there's a lot of interest there's going to be a little bit of principal, and if there's a lot of principal there's going to be a little bit of interest. And so really what we're talking about is the relationship between these two things. And this starts to position why interest rates aren't necessarily the problem. Right now.

Speaker 2: 12:24

When people take out a mortgage, they're really looking at a payment. In fact, when you go and you get pretty proof of the mortgage, you say bank, how much money will you lend me based on how much I can pay you back monthly? And the bank gives you an amount and that amount is made up of principal and interest, and so interest rates are high. Interest rate interest makes up a bigger portion of the payment. So that means you can't, you have to buy a lower priced house. So if interest rates are really high, maybe you got to buy a $400,000 house or a $500,000 house or $600,000 house, right? You got to buy a less principal and when interest rates are low that means you can afford more principal. So now you can buy a $600,000 house right, because you can put more towards the principal, because you're giving less for the interest. So the price of the house is going to teeter with how high the interest rates are.

Speaker 1: 13:26

And I think that's a helpful point because I just again I can just speak from context for us moving, my wife and I, as well as people in our community. You can get big eyes believing that maybe sometimes you deserve more or you want the best for your family, which I love, and I'll champion people to do that, but again, you can put yourself in a detrimental position if you don't understand how taxes play in, and we had talked about in our last series which, if you missed, that we talked about corporate profits and we had talked about how, when companies are profitable, they invest more in a community. They give back, they build. That's what makes companies grow. But a big part of that you got to just think about people working virtually from COVID from 2020, giving in access to work from home.

Speaker 1: 14:08

If you're living in the Northwest of America, in Seattle, and you're paying a high tax rate and you're making $200,000, you're used to living on that amount of money and that taxes. If you move to a state with no state income tax or low property taxes, that $200,000 goes a whole lot farther for what you can purchase and we'll get into that as we go into cause and to effect. But you have a lot of bidders coming to market that are competing for the same houses. So if you can understand this teeter totter, I think it's really important. But then I guess again, if people are blaming it on interest rates, maybe it's helpful to kind of talk through historically where kind of interest rates have been, so that we can start to identify if interest rates are really the problem.

Speaker 2: 14:48

Yeah, and I think that this goes into another thing that's very frequent and I've seen it frequent on TV and I've seen it on the news and I've seen it frequent with I've heard other financial advisors mention it too. Oh, don't worry, interest rates are going to come down. Interest rates are going to come down. Right, just wait for the interest rates to come down. I don't know what interest rates are going to come down. We just did a whole thing on inflation. You know. We've done stuff on corporate profits. We've talked about how much money has been pumped into the economy, how much money there still is to suck out. I don't know why interest rates have to go down.

Speaker 2: 15:22

So I thought it'd be interesting to understand the historical context, because we've really been spoiled by the result of the 2008 financial crash and, although it's you know better part, 16 years later, it's like out of sight, out of mind, like we forget that there was anything before then. And interest rates. So, to give you an idea, 30 year mortgage rates, if you go back to the 70s, the average rate so this is like or the median rate, was 8.89%, so that was a good mortgage back then. That was consistently like what you would expect Now? That's far higher than today's rates. You know people would be like appalled at that. You know I can't believe it. This is robbery. Blah, blah, blah. Okay, and you know the easy answer to that is if you don't want to pay 8.89% in interest, don't borrow the money. You know, don't offer more for the house. You know that type of thing. If everybody all of a sudden stopped offering more for houses, the price of the houses would come down. But that's not the reality. The reality is there's still a lot of people out there that want to buy something.

Speaker 2: 16:36

In the 80s interest rates was 12.82% on the median. So that's the interest rates lag inflation. So the big inflation was the 70s and then, you know, it started to kind of slow down in the 80s. But 12.82% was interest rates and most people, if we talk to any baby boomers, they remember getting their first mortgage and that range In the 90s it was 7.88. So even after the big inflation it's still right about where it is today. Right, or actually a little bit higher than it is today.

Speaker 2: 17:10

And I got into doing mortgages in the early 2000s. I remember doing that and a good rate for somebody with great credit would be in the 60s, it was very common to have an 8% or 9% mortgage in the early 2000s by the time we got to, you know, through the 2008 recession. So if you do the median rates for the 2000s 6.18% and remember 2008, 2009, interest rates dropped like a stone because of the great recession, because, you know, all the banks collapsed basically because of and people will complain, will compare this and say, oh, interest rates are going up again. We're going to have another housing crisis, like we did back in 2008. Those are because of variable arms, and that was an entirely different issue than what we're doing with now. So that's just a fundamentally flawed argument which we're not going to get into today, but anyway, it's just. It's a flawed argument.

Speaker 2: 18:10

And at the end of 2023, now, remember we just talked about, they increased since 2019, the amount of money in circulation by 33%. Remember, that has to go someplace. It's going to go in real estate, stock market or debt. It's going to go. It's going to primarily end up in one of those three buckets. So there's a ton of money out there. People got more money than ever to buy houses on average, and so now the average or the median mortgage rate is 7.01 in 2023. That was at the end of last year.

Speaker 2: 18:42

The low, the lowest the rates were was in February. 2023 is 6.11. And the highest in October. Because it's not always getting. People are like, oh, interest rates are high. Well, it depends on the month you're looking at. It depends on the day. Actually, the highest point was 8.45% and then, as of February 28th of this year, 2024, 7.2.

Speaker 2: 19:04

So when we look at this, if you were to carve out a period of time, you know, between the great recession and COVID, there's nothing special about where interest rates are right now. They're not especially high, they're not low, they're just kind of like hanging out there where they kind of always historically been. And people always talk about the recovery from the great recession. When are we gonna finally recover? I mean, people are still talking saying, you know the economy is still recovering. The economy is still recovering. Well, if interest rates are back up to where they were before, then kind of seems like it's recovered. Right, that's what you were asking for A healthy, regular rate environment, which is you don't want interest rates at zero. Well, people want interest rates at zero because you can borrow for no risk, but they're for no cost. But that's not the reality of how interest rates actually work, unless you're gonna have, you know, runaway inflation and other issues like that.

Speaker 1: 20:02

Well and for maybe depending upon the age of our listeners. You know we got a lot of listeners when we look at our analytics, dts listeners range from. We got a huge majority in their 30s to 40s who are also having student loans and car payments. It's also kind of what you're comparing it to, right, if you have a very low fixed interest rate on your student loan, you just assume you should have a low rate on your mortgage, but you're taking it out for a longer period of time, and so I think when you hear that number about the 80s 12.82, I think most people in their 30s and 40s, if they went down to their local bank or credit unit today to purchase a home and that was the interest rate somebody put in front of them, you'd be like absolutely not. You know we've been a generation that has argued get me down from four and a quarter to three and a half, acting like somehow we're daddy war bucks. And now you're talking about adding potentially almost eight, nine, 10% more, which, again, when you talk about just your monthly expenses, a mortgage is typically one of the largest amounts of the amount of money that you spend. So if you end up having a much higher interest rate, like you said, with that teeter totter that could force people into an unpayable payment. But it is very different, I think, from what you talked about, with what happened in 2008,. Right, and some of what's going on in the market today.

Speaker 1: 21:12

So I think this is super helpful, the context and that's, if you're new, to Ditch the Suits. Yeah, travis and I love shock and awe. We love speaking truth. We love telling you what no one else is gonna tell you, but it's not gimmicky. I think if you'll stick with us long enough, we always try to give you data, historical numbers, to help you understand how we're coming to a thought about these things. It's not just to throw you out what's trendy and is gonna go viral, but it's to help you understand what these numbers actually represent over the last 30, 40 years when it comes to interest rates.

Speaker 2: 21:43

Yeah, so you got a couple issues. Like you said, people in their 30s and 40s right now they haven't lived as an adult borrowing money in a high interest rate environment or what we would call more of a normal interest rate environment. They didn't. They grew up in low interest rates. You know what I mean. They bought their first house in low interest rates, which were going lower. They refinanced the first couple of times into lower interest rates and one of the challenges with that is we get a little bit spoiled, you know, and even people who went through the 70s and 80s and 90s you know that's like ancient history now, because we have such short memories.

Speaker 2: 22:20

You know it's better times and one of the things that happens when the interest rates go from high to low is you can buy more. You can buy bigger houses, you can buy nicer houses. You can buy, you know you can get quartz countertops, you can get three car garages and you can even afford to fill them up right and because you can afford more principal. So it's the same payments but it's more principal. So then what happens with inflation and some of the challenges that we're seeing is the the actual cost of the house goes up Because you're buying more house or you got more stuff in it, you know, from a standpoint of it's higher quality or its regulations. There's all these other things contributing to the cost. So the true price is going up because that's what it costs they actually make the thing and at the same time, the interest rates are going up. So it feels like this is an unfair thing, because all of us I could have Years ago I could have bought more and more and more for, for, yes, I'm paying a higher payment, but I'm getting more value for the payment, and the reason why is because Interest wasn't making up as much of a component of that payment. That teeter tatter was tilted, so it was mostly principal and that's been changing. And so and here's the real issue with waiting for interest rates to come down before you buy a house, because I know that there's a lot of people and again, I'm not saying interest rates can't come down this year, they might, but you know, you think about it. You got a one in three shot because chances are they can stay the same or they can go up, and Anybody who has certainty that they're coming down is probably you know, we had certainty that there was going to be a recession last year about 12 times, and it never happened. So you know, you listen to TV, you listen to these experts talk and they can tell the future about as good as the weatherman. So but the issue is waiting for them come down.

Speaker 2: 24:17

Let's say that you have a house that's priced at $400,000 right now and it's at 7.6, 25 percent. That's a pretty good going rate right now for a mortgage, a 30 year mortgage that will give you a payment of $2,831. And so let's say that you're in a higher market. Multiply by two or multiply by three, whatever right, but it's $2,831 for the $400,000 mark, for the 430 $400,000 mortgage at 7.6 25 percent. So If you're buying a $400,000 house is because you can afford a $2,831 payment. That's how that works. That's how the math works. So if interest rates go down by 2%, the payment actually would drop to $2,303. It's like a $528 difference. So you're like this I'm gonna wait for that to happen. I'm gonna wait for the mortgage, for the interest rates to go down. Then I'll buy that same $400,000 house. You and everybody else who's waiting with you. And what's that gonna mean? That you and everybody else who's waiting for interest rates to drop, are gonna be bidding at the same time for that house, which means what's gonna happen with the house? Well, buyers aren't stupid. They're not gonna be like oh, I'm so glad that you're the first person to come along this year to offer to buy the house. They're gonna say well, you and everybody else came to bid on this house last night, so that $528 in payments that means you can still afford. If you get approved for $2,831, if you get approved for a $400,000 mortgage before the interest rates dropped, that means that you're now approved for a $492,000 mortgage, which means there's room to bid this house up another $92,000. And that's what you're gonna get, because it comes down to the housing budget, comes down to what people can afford and it comes in a.

Speaker 2: 25:59

Yes, it does play into what gets appraised, but that's the other issue. If you think well, you know People were silly paying. What they paid for the house is. Every time somebody pays something more than the appraisal is for the house, every single appraisal in the community goes up. It resets the appraisal floor. So in order for you to be able to buy a house cheaper next year, that means that somebody has to go get an appraisal done. Look at it, go. You know what my house is worth 800,000. I guess I'll take 750 for it. I and as long as there's demand to buy the houses. Why would they take dramatic drops? Because it would take dramatic drops to get the appraisals down right. Because it's based on the recent sales. So just because rates come down doesn't mean the price of houses is going to come down, because what it'll mean is people have more money to spend on the principal component instead of just the interest, and they'll feel better about it.

Speaker 2: 27:02

If you buy a $400,000 house at 8%, you feel bad. If you buy a $600,000 house at 5%, you feel better. And the reason you feel better is because of the percent. You know. It's like I'm getting some free money here, almost Like think back a couple of years ago you could have got a 3% mortgage. What 3% mortgage? Just borrow a little extra. If I said it was 10%, you'd be like I don't want to pay 10% on anything. I'm only going to borrow the bare bones minimum.

Speaker 1: 27:33

Yeah, unless you live in a community that experienced what you and I went through moving here to East Tennessee, where you know you find a house online. You think you and your spouse are the only two that have found this house. So you hear there's an open house on Saturday and you show up five minutes early and there's 55 cars outside waiting to get in. You're like oh, frickin' crap. You know, if you're in a community where it's not very transitory, people don't buy houses very often. Covid kind of changed everything because you got people that are relocating, you got people working from home. And I think maybe what's hard too is understanding, like the cost beyond the mortgage too, because we can say you know, I can afford a $2,000 budget for a mortgage, that's true, but we don't always account. Like a car, if you want to buy a higher luxury vehicle and you say I have so much money to spend on that car payment, you have to forget that it probably is also more money to insure it, which means that your insurance is going to go up. And if your insurance goes up and it costs more to repair the house, you know with me, with four kids, we're in a little bit of a different boat. It costs me a lot more money to maintain life because of my kids. So even if my wife and I decide, hey, we can afford more of a house, can we also? Then I guess the question is, afford everything else that comes with it? Can we afford the extra bedroom? Can you afford when things go wrong? Can you afford all the additional heating costs and the energy efficiency and all of that?

Speaker 1: 28:52

I think this is a really good conversation today, kind of talking around you know the problem with interest rates, but to provide context in terms of, maybe, the pieces that people are forgetting. And I think what's going to be neat is that as we go through these next couple of episodes, talking about cause and effect, I think it'll only drive further, kind of what you need to understand about what's happening right now, so that again, the goal is that you can make the most of your money in life. So hopefully this first conversation has inspired you to understand, to get connected, as, again we want to remind you, our YouTube channel has absolutely blown up. Thank you to all of our subscribers. If you want to watch along with us in these episodes, you can head over to NQR media. That's not quite right media on YouTube and watch along. But again, you can also stream and listen to this on every podcast platform. So thanks for being our guests on episode one talking about interest rates and buying a home. Stay tuned. We'll see you in the next great episodes for you.