2024 Elections: Are Politicians Making You Gamble With Your Future?

In this episode, Steve and Travis discuss the misconception that investing in the stock market is like gambling. They emphasize the importance of understanding the difference between price and value, and how short-term price fluctuations should not dictate investment decisions. They also highlight the long-term growth of the S&P 500 and the potential for significant returns over time. The conversation concludes with a reminder to filter out the noise and focus on making informed financial decisions.

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Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:07

Welcome to Ditch the Suits podcast, where we share insights nobody in the financial services industry wants you to know about. We're here to help you get the most from your money and life, so buckle up and welcome to Ditch the Suits. Well, welcome back to Ditch the Suits podcast, steve Campbell here with Travis Moss going to conclude this three-part series. We are in the middle of an election cycle here in the United States. We've got a presidential election upcoming, a lot of people concerned on whoever gets elected whether Joe Biden is reelected, donald Trump gets elected or somebody else. How is this going to impact your money? We've been leading up to this conversation, providing context too. If you look back over a series of years, there really has been no correlation to a presidential election in your money. Last episode we looked at okay, what role does Congress play In this? One, though, hits home are politicians making you gamble with your future? Travis, I think maybe you have a good antidote here at the beginning to lay kind of the groundwork for an actual personal experience that you had.

Speaker 2: 1:04

Yeah, and I liked the way that you said here in the U S because I do know that, don't? We have a bunch of fans in like Portugal and Spain and stuff.

Speaker 1: 1:12

Hey guys.

Speaker 2: 1:13

I know you follow the numbers, so just shout out to our international fans there. Um, unfortunately we can't work with people outside of the United States, but we do get some calls once in a while and that's kind of fun, but anyway. Yeah, so I had an interesting conversation with someone that I consider a friend for the better part of the last decade and it really revolved around how this person had never had the average performance of the S&P 500. So you know, when you're talking about investing and you're talking about different products and things, you're basically like, okay, well, if everybody's making all this money in the market and I haven't, what's the deal? I just don't trust it. Now, and you know, you get to that point and I think there's a lot of people in this situation where they're thinking well, the game's just rigged because I haven't had the experience as advertised. And that kind of got me thinking, because if you haven't experienced something, does that mean it really doesn't happen?

Speaker 1: 2:10

Great question.

Speaker 2: 2:11

I mean, come on, let's get a little bit outside of ourselves a little bit. Let's be a little bit fair and just say that we're not all going to experience everything in life and we're going to make decisions that are going to lead us down a path where maybe we miss out or maybe we have an experience that a lot of other people don't, for whatever reason. Um, maybe it's, maybe there's decisions that I'm making that's causing me to have this different experience in life. Yep, and like I think about when we're talking about okay, well, so somebody doesn't have the market returns of the S&P 500. Did that person do anything to prevent themselves from getting the performance? For instance, the market crash and that person said, oh my gosh, the market's going down, let's sell all my investments, let's move it to cash. And then they sat in cash for too long, waiting for the perfect time to get back in, after the market already recovers. And then the market hits a new, all-time high. I think, oh, I don't want it to crash again, so they take their money out. Meanwhile, the market still runs up for another year. There's a cause and effect to what you're actually going to get on the bottom line, based on how you act. If you don't buy it and keep your hands out of it, then you're going to get whatever the ramifications are of you putting your hands in it, and it's really hard for some of us to, for some reason, kind of wrap our mind around that. But I think it's really important and I think you know we talk about so-called advisors all the time. We really hammer the financial industry. But here's the biggest thing that an investment manager can actually bring to a client and you know and I've said this before in my day job I'm going to put up a fit. If an investor is trying to do something to save their money, that's actually going to cost them dearly in the long run. The investor feels like they're saving this thing. I've hired some people. I don't trust them anymore because the market went down. They don't know what they're doing, they don't care about my money, which makes no sense. I'm going to yank this out because not because I've experienced no better, but just because I feel like this is the end of times coming and I need to avoid this Right. So we make this. An investor makes this decision.

Speaker 2: 4:37

The best thing that an investment manager can do is just pitch an absolute fit when somebody is doing that to try to stop them in any way. It starts with here's the information that you don't have. It starts with training people. We actually would spend a lot of time working with somebody at Seed to help them understand market volatility before it becomes volatile, right? So this is what could happen. When this happens, this is what we'll do. This is how we take advantage of it, not, hey, if this happens, we'll jump ship and you know, we'll just kind of lick our wounds from there. It's, you know, having a plan. It's understanding how it works. It's that type of thing we're trusting in the party to do it.

Speaker 2: 5:31

So when the investment manager is hired and they agree to all this upfront, and then you know they're, you have a market crash like 2022 and the investor comes along and says you know, let me out, I don't want to play anymore. Hopefully, what happens is that investment manager does everything they can to preserve the money on preserve the money in the market I was going to say on the books, because that's kind of what it is. It's money that's being managed, it's in the market. Does everything they can to preserve that, understanding the ramifications of yanking the money out and either not recovering the losses or not participating in the market adjustments that happen. Thereafter. There are new market highs, set year in and year out. Well, why? Back to the whole idea of look how much money we've printed, look at how much more productive we are. There's going to be more market highs. Just because there was a bad year doesn't mean it's forever going to be bad.

Speaker 2: 6:18

We talked about. There's one instance this decade so far, one instance last decade, one instance or four instances that you know, in the early 2000s, three of them grouped up with the dot com and September 11th and the Iraq war. But and then one in the 80s and one in the 90s is actually very, very few instances of negative market. But these kind of get like they become extreme to us, and part of the reason is is we also hype up the politics with it, right? Whatever the social event is, whoever's running for election or something, the other side, whatever they're saying about it, and the investment advisor's job is to step in and say that has nothing to do with investing. You should not be doing this and if you're going to do this, we're not going to work together, because this is counterproductive, this is destructive, and you are going to do something that you cause yourself real harm.

Speaker 1: 7:14

Let's take a quick break to hear a word from your sponsor. This episode is brought to you by Seed Planning Group. If you're looking for a life-giving experience working with a financial planner, then Seed is here for you. Seed is a fee-only financial planning firm with a fiduciary obligation to put your best interests first. If your goal is financial freedom and independence, without sales products or really glorified salespeople, then check out Seed Planning Group. Today you can visit wwwseedpgcom. That's wwwseedpgcom. That's wwwseedpgcom. And, the best part you can schedule a free consultation to find out if their fee-only planners and their process are right for you.

Speaker 1: 7:54

Well, I think we maybe lose sight of just the reality of investing when you're talking about the S&P 500. You and I did an entire series talking about Bitcoin and the fact that there was nothing actually underlying that. You're purchasing just hoping that the next person drives the price higher. When you talk about the S&P 500, you're talking about companies that make up the S&P 500. And the way we talk about politics is like, depending on who gets elected or reelected, everyone's getting laid off that next day and all these companies are going to tank, and so we kind of lose sight of the fact of. I think there are people that have pulled all their money out of the market. But maybe sometimes some of the question is, like you talked about in our last episode depending on who gets elected or reelected, could certain industries get hurt or impacted. And so what do you do? Making sense of selling off maybe investments or, you know, making changes, if changes should be made.

Speaker 2: 8:48

Right. Well, that's an interesting point that you made too about Bitcoin, Because I've heard people say well, crypto is real. That's a real thing. Stock market's a scam and the government's a scam. Like you know and the color orange is actually green the stock market represents the actual income generating an asset base of corporations. That is the economic engine of the entire world. Right, the US stock market makes up something like 50% of the world stock market, but take all stocks in just general and group them all in a bucket, regardless of what country they come from. That's the economic engine of the world. It gives people jobs, it gives people paychecks, it gives people retirements.

Speaker 2: 9:36

How you can call that a scam or fake is nuts. In the same breath, that you call something that has nothing behind it other than a handshake on the internet with somebody you don't know real is very, very confusing to me. And then, on the same side, when you look at the government and go well, the government's a scam because of the debt and everything, listen, the government still has all the tanks and soldiers and the ability to tax and seize property and a ton of assets. One of the issues. When we talk about debt for the US government, we don't talk about the US government assets at all. So, steve, if I were to say, hey, I got a $200,000 mortgage, you'd say, oh my gosh, you have a $200,000 mortgage. But if I say, but it's on a $3 million house, you'd say, well, that's a good deal. Yep house, you'd say, well, that's a good deal. So we never talk about what the assets are. We never talk about what the income is. All we talk about is what the debt is and then, because of that, the government's a scam. Come on, let's understand what the rules of the game are here and then, within the rules of the game, we can talk about what our preference is. But we got to get our feet on the ground a little bit.

Speaker 2: 10:44

And I'm not implying that people should never sell loser investment, because there are loser investments and there are people who get destroyed investing because they buy stuff that doesn't work out and that happens to a lot of people. And there's a lot of financial advisors, investment and insurance salesmen out there that are selling people junk that absolutely destroys them and have no business selling people the junk that they're selling them. But they do it and this is one of our big points of this entire show. So that certainly does happen. But a decision to sell loser investments should not be triggered because of short-term price volatility. And this is another thing that almost nobody understands and they don't do a good job in the media or on TV or in the newspapers or anything.

Speaker 2: 11:26

There's a difference between price and value. Yep, you know, if you bought a car today and I said, you know I'll give you, you bought it for 20 grand, I'll give you 10,000 for you You'd be like, no, the price is too low. Why is the price too low? Because the value is actually 20. Okay, I'll give you 11,000. Okay, I give you $11,000. No, the price is still too low. I want $20,000, or at least closer to $20,000. So there is a real thing called value and a real thing called price, and they are different. Price is what I'm willing to pay, value is what it's actually worth. But yet we're making short-term decisions based on price fluctuations.

Speaker 2: 12:01

And one of the issues is we have been sold this idea that the stock market is efficient, the whole efficiency thing. Well, the stock market knows what the value is of things. So if the price is what it is that's the real value Then how does it change so much every day. Nope, it's the prices. You go into JC Penney's there's a sale today, tomorrow's there is not a sale. Right, that's what it is.

Speaker 2: 12:27

The market's efficient over the long term. And the reason why it's efficient over the long term is because of attrition, because eventually the losers go bankrupt or get purchased. So the market's going to be right about them. Because they purposely, they self-select their way out of the market. They will actually leave the market, so the market will get the price rate. Eventually it will be zero or whatever they're purchased at and taken over at. That's when the market's actually going to be the most. And even then you could say, well, it's not necessarily efficient when somebody buys something and pays more than it's worth. Well, no, that's true. And that actually, you know, I guess, completes the argument that the market is searching for efficiency, but it is in no way efficient.

Speaker 1: 13:18

And if you want a good resource for what Travis talked about, right, I think we're trying to differentiate cashing out and making an abrupt decision versus looking ahead at what might be coming down the pipeline and maybe getting rid of investments that might not align with what's coming down for the economy.

Speaker 2: 13:33

No, steve. What I mean specifically is I look at my statement today and I see a stock or a mutual fund in my portfolio that's down 20% and therefore I'm going to sell it because that thing must be broken, without looking at the underlying investment and saying what is the business of this investment and why is the price down first? That's what I'm talking about. I'm not actually making the jump and saying somebody's going to get elected and there's going to be solar policy and therefore investing in solar might be a better interest. That's a whole, totally different discussion. What I'm talking here is that we're making very short-term decisions without information and without consideration for the underlying value of the asset.

Speaker 1: 14:18

Well, folks, I probably could have set myself up better for that one. In that the fact that if you need some reference, ditch the Suits episode 94, when to sell an investment I think it will bring to light what Travis just talked about to provide some context for you. So if you're looking for an old resource of ours when to sell an investment, episode 94. All right. So then let's talk about how many people feel that investing in the market is still very risky. Let's provide some context for that.

Speaker 2: 14:45

So I get people all the time who haven't had that good experience and they're like well, the market's kind of like gambling yep and I know actually I actually know people gamble a lot and I know some that are good at it, sometimes right every now and then they actually have a windfall. And the reason why they're good at gambling sometimes is because they understand the rules. Like, if I go into a casino, I don't understand what all you know. I don't know how to use a slot machine. I won't play with more than five cents, right, I don't understand how all the lines go, like I think I got everything. There's like 15 cherries on the screen and I got like five cents. I'm like I don't understand why I didn't win.

Speaker 2: 15:22

So but there are people who actually understand that stuff and even, and even understand the odds a little bit. So they go in and they do fairly decent, I don't know. A lot of people actually understand the rules of investing and a lot of this is because over the last 20, 30 years with E-Trade and everything like that, it's been. Anybody can do this. All you need is essentially to throw a dart at the wall and pick something and it's like if that was the case, there'd be more Warren Buffetts out there. You know, it's just not.

Speaker 1: 15:55

it's just not the case, or it's even today you get people that just feel like if I have all the market research available to me, I can not only do my job as XYZ, but I can all of a sudden study market research and make informed decisions which wouldn't have a track record of being able to do that.

Speaker 2: 16:11

Yeah, and again, I mean, as somebody who reads research reports all the time, you need a lot more context than just somebody else's research report. But anyway, most people have been pushed into thinking that investing is the same as gambling. I mean, after all, we've got all these so-called experts out there and they're telling everybody nobody can make good investment selections that can beat the market over the long haul. So the question is is where do the billionaires come from?

Speaker 1: 16:42

Yep.

Speaker 2: 16:43

If, literally, there's nobody who can beat the market over the long term, where do the really wealthy people come from? They certainly have beat the market over the long term. Where do the really wealthy people come from? They certainly have beat the market somehow.

Speaker 1: 16:54

Well, that was kind of the thought that I had is I don't want to over assume or paint a broad brush but those that might claim that the stock market is rigged or gamble probably, if you talk to, majority of them had a bad beat or bad experience somewhere versus somebody that's made a whole heck of a lot of money over their lifetime might not be framing something in the negative sense of a gamble because they're making good money. Hey guys, steve Campbell with Digital Suits Want to take one quick moment to make a big ask. If you haven't already, travis and I would love for you to subscribe to this podcast, but if you haven't, also we would love for you to leave a five-star rating and review. Your rating and review will let other podcasters know that this show is worth their time. So let's get right back to the episode and thanks for listening to ditch the suits podcast well, if you, if you, and there's there's um science behind this, there's there's psychological science.

Speaker 2: 17:47

I guess, for lack of better, i'm'm not a scientist, but or a doctor, but Psychological science.

Speaker 2: 17:51

Psychological science. There's, there is something behind this. From a standpoint of target day funds in your 401k plan, most people in their 401k plan have a target date fund available to them, and those target date funds are designed to be aggressive now and get more conservative as you get older. And so one of the issues that happens with people when they first start investing is they don't understand that that 2060 target date fund is somewhere between 95 and 100% stocks, and so they put their money in a retirement account and they think of it kind of like their savings or checking account and it's just going to kind of keep going up, up, up, up, up up, because, after all, the long-term average is whatever it is right. It's going to just keep going up. And they get in there and they get their first $1,000 or $10,000 of their name. They've never saved up money before in their life and now they've got $10,000 saved up in this target date fund and it's been going great. And then all of a sudden the market crashes and they go down 50%. Their investing experience now is that they could lose money very, very fast, more than they've ever. I mean, it's more than they've ever had in their life and they just lost half of it, and that panics them. So then, what they do? Because they're listening to other people they go oh my gosh. They're saying run for the hill.

Speaker 2: 19:10

So they cash out, they take the money and they put it back in the money market. They say, okay, sell my target day fund and let's put it in something safe. They now have a real loss of $5,000 or half their money. They are now jaded almost permanently because their first experience was horrible. Or let's say that they get through that and they say never again. Next time it happens, I'm going to cash out. And so the next time they cash out. Or let's say they get through it and they say okay, you know, I must've just done it wrong. And they repeat the cycle.

Speaker 2: 19:42

So it's how you get into it that matters, it's your. You have to go through a cycle to see how the thing works before you decide. You understand how it works. And what happens is most people are saying I understand how it works, who don't have any experience with how it actually works. They're just saying I'm smart enough to figure this out and I'm not even going to bother learning about it. I'm smart enough to figure this out and I'm not even going to bother learning about it and so you've got. There's a big thing with. I have a huge issue with people just jumping in without any kind of guidance and their very first experience is let's go gangbusters full tilt and not be prepared for when things don't go the way as advertised basically not be prepared for when things don't go the way as advertised basically Did you know, since 1970, the S&P 500 had negative returns on 11 occasions.

Speaker 2: 20:40

So we were talking before I think it was 16 from 1957 to now, but since 1970, it's only had 11 negative returns. Six of those were double digits. So five of them not so bad, right. Bad year, not so bad. Six of them bad years, double digits. So that's at least a negative 10% year. The worst year since 1970 was in 2007,. The S&P lost 37%. That was the Great Recession. Right and rightfully so. You know it took a pounding Guess when the second worst year was. It was 1974. It seems like it was two years ago, doesn't it, yep? In 1974, the market lost 26.47%. Yet according to wwwofficialdataorg, which is just a fun, interesting little website, go and play on it because it gives you some. You can push some buttons for inflation and stuff like that, see what a dollar in 1970 was worth now and all that kind of stuff. But if you invested $100 in 1970 in the S&P 500, you would have $22,136 by the end of 2023. Remember how we talked about how big that debt's grown, yep, how it's been going up by 6% a year.

Speaker 1: 21:52

And that's assuming, Travis, that you're not putting in $100 over and over. That's just $100.

Speaker 2: 21:56

No, no, no, you just put $100 in here's my $100.

Speaker 2: 22:00

See you later I'm tapping out. So what percentage do you think that is per year? Because that seems obscene. Right, 10.59% per year. Your money, right, 10.59% per year. Your money grows by 10.59% per year. So put everything we've talked about in the last couple episodes together Monetary supply growing 5%, productivity growing 5%, debt growing 6%, population doubled right Right, s&p 500 since 1970, 10.59% per year. You put $100 in, you had a negative 26.47, really close to the beginning, 1974. And then you lost 37% again in 2007, the two big thunder kind of crashing years. You had nine other years where you lost money and you still made 10.59% per year. If this is gambling, I want to play this game all the time.

Speaker 1: 23:02

Yeah, if you could line your cherries up when you go into a gambling hall and get that kind of return, you'd be a winner. But I think that's the hard part, because you think about not only politics. You think about things like COVID, you think about wars, you think about China, tariffs, and it just. The negative stories are so loud and they're so overwhelming that we think that it affects everything. We think that it affects everything, but when you look back to 1970 and how few times the market was actually down and the fact that you still could have made a lot of money over, something isn't lining up, and I think that's what we're trying to separate is the emotional from the actual contextual.

Speaker 1: 23:42

So, again, not push you one way or another. Say, believe this, believe that, but whatever you do with this information is completely up to you. And so I guess the question is you talked about billionaires, but there's a lot of people that are not billionaires, but they've made millions of dollars over the years, working regular jobs, saving money. So I guess the question is then why are the people that are shaking their fists or saying this isn't fair? Why aren't they experiencing these highs or these high water marks?

Speaker 2: 24:10

Well, and you said it too, people are feeling like it's getting worse. People are feeling like the world is getting worse and it's headed in the wrong direction. Yeah, one bad market and we're only four years, three years into the decade, right, but last decade, one bad market, one negative market. The decade before that, we had the four. We've talked about that. The decade before that one, the decade before that one, how is it getting worse? I don't see how it's getting worse, right, in fact, outside of 2008, the worst market was all the way back in the 70s, 1974. How is it getting worse? I don't know how it's getting worse.

Speaker 2: 24:50

Financially and economically, it seems like everything is growing exponentially. Um, so your question was why don't more people have this experience where they're making that 10.59 every year, whatever? And I think it's because people, especially with our cell phones. Now we are measuring success on a daily, weekly basis, monthly basis, quarterly basis. That's the problem. You don't have a good day every day. You don't have a good month every month. And what do you consider a good day or a bad day? If you lose 1% in a day, is that a bad day, or is that just a day that you lost 1%? But if you pop out your Excel spreadsheet and you download your numbers every week and every time it says negative you put red, and every time it says positive you put green, and half of them are red and half of them are green, you're going to feel miserable. Half the time you're a loser. Yeah, overall the green ones are bigger than the red ones. You know, when you add it all up at the end of the year, you could make 10% in a year and still have 300 negative days. I mean, you could have 364 negative days and one positive day, you know.

Speaker 2: 26:14

And so the problem is is that we're so fixated and we're creating our identities and we're latching on because we're so afraid of the scarcity, with the scarcity mindset, that we're obsessed with these short-term measuring sticks. We can't even get to the long term because it's all about today. So we're making decisions based on fight or flight today that completely disregard the long term, both the long-term precedent, I guess is the better word, the long-term history and really what, the long-term? If you look forward, where can you see yourself long-term and what do you need to do today to get there? And a lot of it is counter to these short-term, fear-driven decisions that we're making.

Speaker 2: 27:09

This is where politics come in. If you want long-term fear-driven decisions that we're making, this is where politics come in. If you want long-term results, you have to be willing to look at the world in a certain way and in politics, if my goal is to make you afraid so that you react now, that's the ultimate short-term thinking, which is why everything kind of seems to revolve around that you can't approach the world as if there's a limited amount of time. There isn't One of the scariest things and not to draw any kind of political bias, but one of the scariest things is this idea that the world's going to end in six years, or however many years that the doomsdayers are saying. Because what if you're wrong?

Speaker 2: 27:56

You know, like the damage that you could do to yourself, stress-wise and investment, long-term, financial-wise, preparing for the end to come at this election, let's say, you can set a chain of events for yourself up that can't be easily undone.

Speaker 2: 28:18

So if we look at the world like we have a limited amount of time and there's a limited amount of outcome, there's only two outcomes they win and we lose. We win or we win and they lose, right, like if, if there's only two outcomes. It's a pretty terrifying situation that you're in, and if we're always approaching it from a negative perspective, how do we do it? I would love someday for there to be an election cycle where the politicians get up and say you know what? We're pretty darn fortunate and let's protect that for our children. And to do that, let's make sure that we start being more civil and let's stop skewing data and playing with statistics to make somebody else look bad when it's an immoral or unethical application of the data. When are we going to stop doing those things? But what we have to understand as individual investors is we're caught in the middle of that and we're left as individuals to try to filter out the bigger game, and we're being more and more programmed just to focus on today and tomorrow.

Speaker 1: 29:32

Well, I think you did a really nice job over this series of trying to differentiate the social and the emotional from the financial, because it's so easy to mix all of them together, I mean depending on if it's your side, their side. There are some serious issues that people are dealing when it comes to identity and marriage and equality in schools and boards and wars and what happens. That's all very real and that's happening. But I think sometimes the financial aspect gets lumped into it, especially when you're talking about character issues of individuals or candidates. It seems like everything is bad, every decision is bad and I think that, whether you like candidates or not, hopefully what this series has done is showed you that if there is no correlation between who's elected president or how Congress impacts it, and there still is opportunity to make good decisions, how do you begin to filter out the noise? When it comes to Ditch, the Suits is, I think, a really powerful podcast, because there's two teeter-totter balancing acts of life and money the social, the emotional is the life side. What do you do with that? How do you add more to your plate? How do you live the life you want to live? But when it comes to your money side. I think what we've tried to show you is that, no matter what is happening, there might be short-term impacts, but over the long term there has been some real money to be made to put your family in the best financial position possible to have financial independence. So I just want to say again I'm proud that we don't come onto this show and bash one person or one party over another as much as maybe just bring some data and some truth to light that can help you make a good decision.

Speaker 1: 31:10

So, as always, thank you for stopping by Ditch the Suits. We'll hope you'll check out our YouTube channel at NQR Media Watch along with us. Share these episodes with a friend, have a talking point. If you do have future episodes or series that you'd like to hear from us, reach out to Travis and I Let us know what you'd like to hear about. We love, like you said, we have listeners from all over the world. We love engaging with you guys as listeners fans, if that's what you want to call yourself ditchers, but we just try to bring you information that we think is relevant to help you get the most of your money in life. So, as always, thanks for being our guests and stopping by Ditch the Suits podcast.